Chart of the Week - Gold

Will The Gold Rally End When Large Speculators Buy?

A few weeks ago we reviewed Gold price action, positioning and how Large Speculators (blue column and traditionally trend followers) started to sell Gold which I could not explain. Well, they continued to sell Gold futures, and now Gold is breaking out making new all-time highs. If anyone knows who is buying this Gold, please comment and let me know, because it is not Hedge Funds trading with size (aka Large Specs). Small Specs (yellow column) have been buying but their size is so small, not sure that is what is driving price higher.

As Gold continues to be the commodity to watch in 2025, when will the market turn? As long as it is not crowded to the long side, the trend can continue for a while, especially if Large Specs continue to sell. I would keep watching to see when they start buying week over week (not just one week), where they commit to the trend, and hopefully they get max crowded, providing a potential short trade in Gold with high reward to risk ratio. Until then, and as I always say, don't short all-time highs.

From the longer term positioning chart, you can see that Large Specs have been less-long than they currently are, so this may continue on.

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